[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S 0F 15N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WAVE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20
KT.  WAVE IS UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 59W-63W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 7N30W 9N47W 10N60W. IN
ADDITION TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 15W-35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N90W TO
25N94W THAT IS CLEARLY DELINEATED BY WIND SHIFTS.  NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH HOWEVER.  SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE E GULF E OF 90W PRODUCING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY ACTIVE OVER
THE E GULF COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. DEEP-LAYERED
S FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA
HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSETTLED/ STORMY REGIME MAINLY
OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA AGAIN TODAY.  THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER CUBA AND THE SE GULF THEN
PROPAGATED NE ACROSS FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 79W-86W.  EXPECT VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTENING AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SEE ABOVE.  A LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
FROM N COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 10N77W 15N80W 22N81W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED/WET OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA AS MULTILEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME
MORE DIFFLUENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COSTA RICA TO CENTRAL CUBA TO THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N78W.
EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN TO REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT N. ELSEWHERE E OF
75W...DRYING IS OCCURRING COURTESY OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N63W. THIS CIRCULATION
IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY SW AND WILL REACH THE ABC ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE E
CUBA AND FLORIDA TO THE N BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CATALYST FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN UPSTREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE W ATLC MAINLY
POLEWARD FROM CUBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 70W.
ELSEWHERE...COLD/STATIONARY FRONT STRADDLES THE N PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N49W 29N56W 29N65W 32N73W. OVERRUNNING
ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  EXPECT THIS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
SKIRTING THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. S OF THE FRONT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WITH A
WELL-DEFINED AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N28W SW TO 26N40W THEN W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE AREA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SPANNING THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 25N
TO THE ITCZ. OVER THE E ATLC...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF
20N AND E OF 40W.  THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY N AS A
WELL DEFINED RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
10N/11N FROM AFRICA TO 60W. DIFFLUENT FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

$$
FORMOSA




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