[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 012352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W JUST
OVER 20 KT OR ABOUT 9 DEG/DAY. THE WAVE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20
KT OR 6-7 DEG/DAY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED JUST SE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ASSISTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY S OF 10N/11N AS IT
SPREADS WESTWARD ACROSS N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
24 HORUS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N5W 6N20W 8N40W 6N60W. ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 35W-65W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY ACTIVE COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX ROUGHLY
ALONG 90W.  DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAS PRODUCED A VERY UNSETTLED/STORMY REGIME
MAINLY OVER THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 2 DAYS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH HAVE FORMED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN PROPAGATED EWD ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR
FROM THIS ACTIVITY HAS LIMITED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THUS PRODUCING
A REVERSAL OF THE TYPICAL PEAK AFTERNOON COVERAGE. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING
SEWD OVER THE W GLFMEX.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT/DYNAMICS LATER TONIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS POSSIBLY IGNITING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE E GLFMEX. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTENING AND GUSTY WINDS.  HAVING SAID
THAT...WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE E OF 90W TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST 2
DAYS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING
SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKENING THU AND FRI.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH OVER THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
ENHANCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED/WET OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT.  CURRENTLY...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA NWD TO
HONDURAS.  ISOLATED STRONG CELLS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE N
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FORMING OVER W CUBA.  EXPECT THIS OVERALL AREA TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT NWD.  ELSEWHERE E OF JAMAICA...DRYING IS
OCCURRING COURTESY OF CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO FRAGMENT AND
AN UPPER LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS REACHING THE ABC ISLANDS BY FRI MORNING.  EXPECT DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS W OF THE UPPER LOW AND WET/STORMY CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST.

ATLANTIC...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS
MOVED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND RACED ACROSS THE
W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
CENTRAL CUBA NEWD ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO 32N75W.  THE CATALYST
FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN UPSTREAM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PARKED OVER THE GLFMEX.  THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED/STORMY WEATHER
OVER THE W ATLC MAINLY POLEWARD OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA.  ELSEWHERE...STATIONARY
FRONT STRADDLES THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA JUST S OF
BERMUDA. OVERRUNNING ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/TSTMS AFFECTING THE AREA FROM
BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE SE UNITED STATES.  WHILE CURRENTLY
STATIONARY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIVEN SWD BEGINNING TONIGHT
AS A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW NEAR
38N55W DEVELOPS.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXTENDING FROM 31N48W TO 28N62W TO BEYOND 32N71W BY THU
AFTERNOON.  S OF THE FRONT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W THROUGH 27N50W THEN W
TO THE S BAHAMAS.  THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST SPANNING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 26N TO THE ITCZ.  OVER THE E
ATLC...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SPAIN SW IN BETWEEN
MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N45W CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY
NWD AS A WELL DEFINED RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 11N/12N ACROSS
THE TROPICAL BELT FROM AFRICA TO 55W.  DIFFLUENT FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

$$
RHOME



WWWW
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