[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011822
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKENING SWATH OF AFRICAN
DUST.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 8N38W 7N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
12W-15W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
27W-32W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N90W 29N94W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH.  A SQUALL LINE IS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
NUMEROUS STATIONS IN S FLORIDA HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE.  ANOTHER SQUALL LINE IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS MOVING
SE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
93W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 85W-100W.  EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE AT
25N94W...30N88W...AND 21N87W.   A RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W.  EXPECT CONTINUED AIR MASS
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-85W.  A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N61W.  CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 74W.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW REGIME BECOME
MORE DIFFLUENT.

ATLANTIC...
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SQUALL LINE HAS TRAVERSED FLORIDA AND HAS
MOVED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
FURTHER NE A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N62W 30N70W 32N80W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONT.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
AZORES SW TO A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W THEN W TO THE S BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N72W.  THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA.  AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST SPANS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.  MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
30N48W SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE
GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF 22N58W. IN THE E ATLC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SPAIN SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N25W AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 23N37W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA WESTWARD ALONG 10N. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ASSISTING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WAVE ALONG 38W SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD.

$$
FORMOSA


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