[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 011411
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2005

...RE-TRANSMITTED...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH.  LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE
NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES ARE 10 AND 6...RESPECTIVELY.
WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN 2005...AT THIS TIME IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
CONFIDENTLY PREDICT THE NUMBER OF CYCLONES THAT MIGHT AFFECT LAND.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2005 IS AS FOLLOWS...

NAME           PRONUNCIATION      NAME          PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE                            MARIA          MA REE AH
BRET                              NATE
CINDY                             OPHELIA        O FEEL YA
DENNIS                            PHILIPPE       FEE LEEP
EMILY                             RITA
FRANKLIN                          STAN
GERT                              TAMMY
HARVEY                            VINCE
IRENE                             WILMA
JOSE            HO ZAY
KATRINA         KA TREE NA
LEE

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A
DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME.  IT
BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION.

A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...
MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG FORMATIVE WEATHER
SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO
HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE STRIKE PROBABILITIES...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR EACH
ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE
MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...OR TCU...IS
A BRIEF STATEMENT THAT MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS OFTEN USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. A CHANGE IN THE TCU HEADER
FORMAT HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED BEGINNING THIS YEAR...WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF STORM-SPECIFIC HEADERS SIMILAR TO THOSE USED FOR
OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES CAN NOW
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61-WTNT65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADERS MIATCUAT1-MIATCUAT5.

NEW AND EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS THAT WILL BE ISSUED ALONG WITH THE
STANDARD ADVISORY PACKAGE ARE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURFACE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITIES.  THESE PRODUCTS...AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT FORM...PROVIDE PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.  THE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS
FONT11-FONT15 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADERS MIAPWSAT1-MIAPWSAT5.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

$$

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