[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE. AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 32W-36W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKENING SWATH OF AFRICAN
DUST WITH ENHANCED E TRADEWINDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ACTING TO
SUPPRESS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS ON
THE RISE. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO THU BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG
82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION WITH LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ANY ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS MASKED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND S FLOW AT
THE UPPER LEVELS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N21W 10N35W 6N49W 7N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-47W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
51W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
COURTESY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM AN UPPER
LOW THAT HAS MOVED N INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS THE N GULF
COAST TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 89W. THE ATTENDANT
STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG
31N/32N FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1004 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 25N88W TO A
1006 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19N93W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 1004 MB LOW W
INTO TO TEXAS. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IGNITE A STRONG
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IS BEING PROPAGATED E/NE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN THE
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN OVERALL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AND THIS
AREA OF ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MOST OF FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE W ATLC AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT PERIODS OF SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL N OF CUBA FROM 76W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM OVER TEXAS WITH A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF TIL FRI WHEN THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-WEST MOVES TOWARD THE NE UNITED
STATES. THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AT ANY TIME OVER THE E GULF FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME S
FLORIDA WITH DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL PRODUCE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNW OVER CENTRAL CUBA. FURTHER
E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS S INTO E CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST N
OF VENEZUELA. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONFLUENCE
RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE S
OF 15N FROM 75W-82W. AN ACTIVE ITCZ COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18NW OF 76W. W OF
82W...DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N
ACROSS W CUBA. ELSEWHERE...HAZY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH AFRICAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN... ESPECIALLY
E OF 75W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.

ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS AGAIN MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF
23N. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME S FLORIDA AS DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN MAINLY POLEWARD
OF A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 31N/32N E OF BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC...AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSIST THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
PROPAGATE OVER THE BAHAMAS FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC. LOOKING
UPSTREAM....THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE NE
UNITED STATES COAST IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC...RE-ENFORCING THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL PUSH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT SE STARTING LATER TODAY
ENTERING THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS EARLY AS THU WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH 30N48W SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED
DIFFLUENCE GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF 22N58W. IN THE E ATLC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SPAIN SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N25W AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 23N37W TO WEAK THIRD LOW NEAR
20N41W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING
NE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA
WESTWARD ALONG 10N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS ASSISTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. THE
ITCZ...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 34W SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N35W TO A
1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N52W THEN W TO THE
BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
LATER IN THE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. FINALLY...AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
SPANS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S
OF 25N TO THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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