[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE. AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 28W-34W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 14N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SWATH OF
AFRICAN DUST WITH ENHANCED E TRADEWINDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND CONVECTION.
MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE
TODAY INTO THU BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF JAMAICA ALONG 80W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH
LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N25W 8N37W 7N45W 9N54W
8N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-47W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N FROM 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
COURTESY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
COAST WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG
31N/32N FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 24N91W TO A
1003 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N93W. THE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO IGNITE A STRONG
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IS BEING PROPAGATED E ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE NE
GULF WITHIN THE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SE OF THE UPPER
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN OVERALL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
NE AND THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS BEING
RE-ENFORCED BY A UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THE NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE GULF TIL FRI WHEN
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NE UNITED STATES. THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT ANY TIME OVER THE NE GULF. FURTHER
S...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH DEEP LAYERED
S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL
PRODUCE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NW OVER W CUBA. FURTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO N VENEZUELA. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONFLUENCE RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN.
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE S OF 15N W OF 78W WITH AN
ACTIVE ITCZ COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
FURTHER W...DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...HAZY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
AFRICAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...
ESPECIALLY E OF 75W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER FLOW REGIME BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.

ATLANTIC...
EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED FROM OVER FLORIDA HAS
DIMINISHED WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF 23N. YET ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW EMERGING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM CONVECTION
GENERATED IN THE NE GULF. CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN MAINLY POLEWARD OF A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG
31N/32N E OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC...AMPLE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSIST THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE
BAHAMAS. LOOKING UPSTREAM....THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING OFF THE NE UNITED STATES COAST IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC RE-ENFORCING THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL PUSH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT SE STARTING LATER TODAY
ENTERING THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS EARLY AS THU WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
32N50W SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE
GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF 23N59W. IN THE E ATLC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SPAIN SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
30N24W AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 24N36W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA WESTWARD ALONG 10N. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ASSISTING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG 32W. THIS WAVE SHOULD
REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A
WELL-DEFINED AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW ALONG
32N33W THEN WSW TO 27N53W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
FINALLY...AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST SPANS THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 25N TO THE
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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