[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 19W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. DAKAR SOUNDING DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THIS
WAVE EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST LATE LAST NIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 18W-20W. WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W. THIS
WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF A RATHER LARGE AREA OF AREA OF
MODERATE NE FLOW AND SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS SPREADING WESTWARD
WITH TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 17 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS INDICATED VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE WAVE CAN SPOTTED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND IS
INDICATED ON THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS. THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION
OF OF ANY CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF
8N50W.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM TODAY
REVEALED THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 18-24 HOURS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
61W-64W AS IT CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ABOVE THE WAVE
APPEARS TAKING ON MORE SYMMETRY INDICATING THAT THE WAVE IS
SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE WAVE IS NOT PRESENTLY IN
THE TYPICAL FAVORABLE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR FURTHER
ORGANIZATION...BUT MAY ACQUIRE MORE ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WAVE...AS IT MOVES FURTHER W AND UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SUITABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP MORE. THE WAVE
WILL BE ATTENDANT BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
23N77W TO JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W AND S TO NORTHERN
PANAMA. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS SHEARED WELL TO THE NE OVER
THE ATLANTIC NE OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WEAKENING THE
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
E CUBA AND OVER W JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N30W 8N40W 8N50W 12N67W
TO INLAND NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11.5N72.5W. OUTSIDE
TROPICAL WAVE RELATED CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W
AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 43W-48W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
36W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 9 0NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N87W OR  ABOUT 70 NM S OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N90W TO 28N93W.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-88W.
THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATED WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-49 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS JUST INLAND THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. SIMILAR SEABREEZE ENHANCED
CONVECTION IS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULAS. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS NW CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR NEARLY 100 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 16N-19N W OF 81W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 19N80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 60W
FROM NE VENEZUELA AT 9N65W NE TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CONTINUING WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE W IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
62W REACHING TO NEAR 67W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W MOVING
NNE 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 40W-43W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N27W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N36W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT
N OF 18N AND E OF 39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CUT OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW IS
N OF 15N BETWEEN 32W-52W. SMALL NEARLY STATIONARY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N70W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS
THE AREA BETWEEN BOTH CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS.

$$
AGUIRRE




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