[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 17W S OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT.  THE LATEST DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WAVE PASSAGE.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE ITCZ WITH SOME LOW
CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 16W-18W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 44W-49W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST
20 KT.  A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N74W TO NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N76W TO N COLOMBIA
AT 8N77W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 75W-79W...AND FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
75W-78W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 8N25W 8N40W 11N48W 12N55W 12N60W.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
24W-30W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 29N88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 83W-89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 89W-95W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N94W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING W.  IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
JAMAICA AT 18N76W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 60W
FROM NE VENEZUELA AT 9N60W TO BEYOND 32N60W.  EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE W TO 65W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
BENEATH IT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 36W-48W.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N25W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 18N AND E OF 38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CUT OFF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N42W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA



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