[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N65W...TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N69W...
TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THIS PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW ONLY AFFECTS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 17N
TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W ARE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH WHICH SPANS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 26N57W.
EXPECT THIS FOUL WEATHER TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THESE AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO
FROM THE EAST...ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN MEXICO EAST OF 94W
AND IN GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 10N20W 11N35W...10N40W 10N49W...10N51W 12N57W
15N61W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND CARIBBEAN SEA AND PACIFIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W...AND FROM 8N
TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
NEAR 29N87.5W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES TO 25N90W.
ISOLATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO 30N WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF FLORIDA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIG AND EASILY RECOGNIZABLE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MARCH
WESTWARD WITH TIME. A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONIC CENTER WAS FOUND IN
THE MONA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. ONE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP
OF THIS SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A SECOND
AND DIFFERENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AS
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INVADE THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 23N65W 8N69W ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS THE MAIN FEATURE ON THIS MORNING'S MAP. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N38W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 26N48W
TO 27N59W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
26N67W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 26N90W...
TO A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 21N97W TO WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 20N105W. THIS TROUGH IS
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING 23N65W 8N69W TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT


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