[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 250236
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SATELLITE...INDICATE THAT GERT WAS STARTING TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0000Z.  WHILE THE CENTER STAYED
BROAD...THE NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AT
11000 FT AT 2053Z...AND THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KT AT 850
MB ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AROUND 00Z.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE COULD NOT
QUITE REACH THE CENTER...BUT EXTRAPOLATED A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS DATA IS THE BASIS FOR THE LANDFALL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 1005 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TRACK ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW-MID/LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER
AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0300Z 22.0N  98.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N  99.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.1N 100.9W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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