[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 240251
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...CURRENTLY IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENESIS MISSION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED
INNER CORE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WITH
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS
FORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS...
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER MEXICO.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 19.7N  94.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.2N  95.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N  97.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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