[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 200841
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOW THAT EMILY HAS A CLASSIC
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH DIAMETERS OF 16 AND
50 N MI.  THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE OUTER EYEWALL...WITH THE AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY REPORTING 107 KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THAT AREA.
THE DEEPENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH THE
AIRCRAFT-MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURES HOVERING IN THE 943-945 MB
RANGE SINCE 02Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/7.  A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHOULD TURN EMILY TO A WESTERLY TRACK IN THE NEXT
12 HR OR SO...AND THIS MOTION PERSIST UNTIL EMILY DISSIPATES OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

EMILY IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE PRESENCE OF
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IF
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CAUSES THE OUTER EYEWALL TO TIGHTEN UP AS
THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER
LANDFALL...AND EMILY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR.

THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON BUOY DATA... AND THE
WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT
FLIGHT LEVEL DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 24.7N  97.2W   110 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 24.8N  98.6W    75 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net