[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL.
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 92.9W OR ABOUT 320
MILES...514 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 340 MILES...
545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 19/0600 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 100 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB
MAKING EMILY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY APPEARS TO
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EMERGING INTO THE GULF EARLIER
MONDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND WITHIN
90 NM TO THE NORTH. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 84W-94W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 18N MOVING W
15 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND THE
PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY SURGE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE
TO ITS INTERACTION WITH AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE E AND THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN WIDE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 14N25W 9N40W 10N51W 13N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 5N FROM 12W-18W. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 38W-50W AND
WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE EMILY REMAINS THE FOCUS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD NE MEXICO. AN ELONGATED...BUT WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SITUATED JUST E OF EMILY OVER THE SE GULF
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING N TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH OVER N GEORGIA. W OF EMILY...THE UPPER
TROUGH IS NOW INLAND OVER TEXAS INTO MEXICO WITH A SMALL UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI. THE OUTFLOW OF EMILY IS EXTENDS
TOWARD THE N AND E...LIMITED TO THE W AND BEING SHEARED TO THE
S. IN THE WAKE OF EMILY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
WESTWARD OVER THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E FLORIDA COAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY
MARKED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY'S INFLUENCE ON THE AREA CONTINUES TO DWINDLE
WITH TIME WITH THE ONLY LEFTOVER EFFECT BEING A TRAILING
CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING OVER THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE FAR W GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER
LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW HAS
DEVELOPED JUST S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N73W. THIS DRY AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE
RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING A UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC
WATERS WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 63W AND AN NE/SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE
30N56W-24N73W...REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE E ATLC...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF AFRICA NEAR
16N15W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 19N30W. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SW TO A
1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W CONTINUING W ALONG
32N TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.

$$
WALLACE



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