[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL.
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 82.8W OR ABOUT 305 MILES
MILES...490 KM... EAST SOUTHEAST OF COSUMEL MEXICO AT 17/1200
UTC MOVING WNW 18 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938
MB AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO
160 KT MAKING EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  EMILY CONTINUES
TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE WITH ALL THE SIGNS
OF A DANGEROUSLY STRONG HURRICANE INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED AND
CLEAR EYE...AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
JET. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH IN 100
NM OF CENTER.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY TODAY....THEN EFFECTING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15
KT.  FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE HAS A
WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED FOR MID
JULY. LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W S OF 19N MOVING W 20
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES AND AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR.  AS A RESULT...THE WAVE IS
MOVING FASTER THAN USUAL AND CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPRESSED N OF
THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
39W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE A STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY SURGE
AND ASSOCIATED AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR. FURTHER NORTH... LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING INCREASING
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 6-10N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N17W 10N30W 10N40W 8N50W 8N60W
THEN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN28W-34W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
46W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE UNITED
STATES SW THROUGH 24N90W INTO A  WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER TEXAS INTO N
CENTRAL MEXICO. AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 93W.  ELSEWHERE... DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GLFMEX WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA TODAY.
HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM EMILY IS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME SE GULF AND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO
240 NM TO THE N OF THE CENTER.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED OF
SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED
FURTHER W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE MOVING INLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  ELSEWHERE...E OF EMILY...UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD BEHIND
EMILY COURTESY OF A UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
73W/74W...THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH  EXTEND FROM 36N44W TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 20N59W TO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N67W...AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
THE WEATHER OVER THE W ATLC REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. THE
WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG SHEAR
WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT AND FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 20N. E OF THE WAVE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY
SURGE AND ASSOCIATED AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED MARCHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY NEAR
53W.  THE RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR WITHIN THIS SURGE IS
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ.

$$
JP/DB








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