[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE EMILY IS NEAR 14.5N 72.0W
AT 15/1800 UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 100 KT GUSTS 115 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WIND SPEED AROUND EMILY HAS DECREASED
A BIT IN ORDER TO PUT IT IN CATEGORY THREE. NO EYE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. THE
EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE CENTER
SOLIDLY FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W...AND AROUND THE
PERIPHERY IN A FEW BANDS FROM 13N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE ANY CYCLONIC
MOVEMENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD NEAR THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENING.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
WAVE FROM THE 15/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DISSIPATED.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM 17N TO
22N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W HAVE LED TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 45W AND 49W.

TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AND
PASSING THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA...HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG 54W SOUTH
OF 9N...ONE DEGREE OF LONGITUDE EAST OF THE 15/0600 UTC ANALYSIS
BASED ON THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE ITCZ LEADS TO WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 97W/98W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N84W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ITS WAY FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SHOWERS ARE
DISSIPATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THEY HAD BEEN COMPARATIVELY STRONGER EARLIER...IN AN AREA
OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THIS WAVE
INFLUENCED ANY OF THE EARLIER SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 11N23W...10N28W 10N35W 12N42W...12N47W 10N62W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA HAVE LED TO THE WEAKENING OF AN AREA
OF EARLIER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 2N TO 7N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ITS WAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 19N84W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N76W. SHOWERS ARE
DISSIPATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THEY HAD BEEN COMPARATIVELY STRONGER EARLIER...IN AN AREA
OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF.
THE THREE DAY FORECAST FOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVES IT TO THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY IS THE STORY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ITS MOVEMENT
CONTINUES TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...FORECAST TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE EMILY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FROM THE 19N84W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES 76W NORTH OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SEEN FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 84W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 89W. ITCZ SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONE CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 32N48W TO A POSSIBLY DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N59W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...RUNNING
SOUTHWARD TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W...BORDERING THE ADVANCING
43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
WITH THIS TROUGH IN THE DRY AIR. DRY AIR ALSO IS FOUND NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 20N EAST OF 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

$$
MT


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