[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 67.5W AT 15/0300 UTC...OR
ABOUT 375 MILES SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING WNW AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 135 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
957 MB. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SMALL EYE IS
DISCERNIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY COVERS A MUCH SMALLER AREA THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT IS A NOW A CAT 3 HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A CAT 4
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER TO THE SW AND WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF
THE CENTER TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY
SYMMETRICAL. THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL TAKE EMILY JUST S OF
JAMAICA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 18N MOVING W
NEAR 10-15 KT. MID/UPPER LEVEL ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL TURNING. ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 21N WITH A 1012 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N OF
THE LOW FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N40W-17N41W.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 12N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED/MASKED BY THE MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER
CIRCULATION WITH THE WAVE JUST TO THE E. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO IS ALONG 95W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
PRODUCING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW FORCING CONVECTION WESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 11N31W 13N42W 9N53W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
AFRICA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N-13N. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
25W-39W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 8N37W-1N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
AXIS ALIGNED E/W ALONG 24N AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N.
N OF THE RIDGE...MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CLIPPING THE NW GULF. THE MOST NOTABLE OF
THESE DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WHICH IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF TEXAS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST FROM GALVESTON TO BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND
BROWNSVILLE. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED/STORMY
PATTERN OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT ARE MAINTAINING A TRANQUIL PATTERN EXCEPT IN THE EH AREA
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DRY/STABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES WNW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA BETWEEN 72W-86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN BETWEEN THE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF S OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS
PRODUCING CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO WEST AND
DIFFLUENCE/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE W HALF OF THE ATLC
EXTENDING E/W ALONG 24N. OVER THE E ATLC...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BETWEEN 42W-63W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N47W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE W HALF OF
THE ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA E OF 60W. W
OF 60W...A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N73W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA...
TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UPPER TROUGH/
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES
SW ALONG 32N57W ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE SE THROUGH 32N31W TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES EXIST S OF THE
RIDGE TO THE ITCZ ALLOWING AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST TO MARCH ACROSS
ATLC TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net