[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 62.9W AT 14/1200 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY APPEARS TO BE
INTENSIFYING AT A MODERATE AFTER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NIGHT. HURRICANE EMILY PASSED OVER GRENADA AROUND
0700 UTC AND IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. THIS TRACK WILL
TAKE EMILY JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF 15N
TO JUST INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 59W-66W. THIS IS
BRINGING  HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE DANGEROUS
MID SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W S OF 19N AT 0600 UTC
BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 KT.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 10N22W-
11N24W-10N26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 21N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 17N FROM 37W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS
IS A WEAK WAVE WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED AND NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. WAVE IS BENEATH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE REGION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N14W 9N23W 15N33W 10N41W 6N49W
11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
THE AXIS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N33W...WITHIN 75 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-10N... AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 45W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 4N46W 5N52W THEN FOLLOWING THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA TO 8N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO/TEXAS NEAR 26N97W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
MEXICO...SE UNITED STATES...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF
CLEAR AND DRY WITH THE S GULF AND THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER
MOIST CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N FROM 93W-96W TO INLAND OVER THE S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E GULF ALONG 28N WITH A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH IN THE GULF NEAR 28N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATING THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 80W. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE UPPER
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA
NEAR 21N76W TO 15N80W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS. DIFFLUENCE TO THE S AND E IS AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA S
OF 17N W OF 74W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 17N77W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF E JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND HAITI. VERY SMALL
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN
125/150 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N72W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR HURRICANE EMILY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN AS HURRICANE EMILY MOVES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 78W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM DEEP LAYERED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION
THROUGH 32N62W SSW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER E
CUBA. WEAK DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE FROM 20N67W TO 30N65W. BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR HURRICANE EMILY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE W
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 48W-67W.
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 31N47W S TO
22N49W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO ACROSS FLORIDA...THUS ONLY STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS
ARE APPARENT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS COVERED THE E
ATLC HAS BEEN ERODED BY A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING S AND IS NOW N
OF 28N E OF 35W. THIS HAS ALLOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP NEAR 21N28W.

$$
WALLACE




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