[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140511
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 14/0300 UTC.
HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300 UTC
MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 992
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS REPORTED BY U.S. AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. HURRICANE EMILY HAS BEEN CROSSING
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO MOVING OVER THE GRENADINES INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
9.5N-15N BETWEEN 57.5W-62.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 20N WITH A 1011
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
WITHIN 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N37W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE
OBSERVED AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BENEATH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF A LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N26W 13N36W 12N41W 9N49W
11N57W WHERE IT IS DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 41W TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS MEXICO AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 25N93W. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF
CLEAR AND DRY WITH THE S GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER
MOIST CONDITIONS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N
FROM 91W-96W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
HAVE BEGUN TO DIE DOWN TO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E GULF
ALONG 27N TO 85W. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE W
ACROSS THE GULF AND BE COMPLETELY OVER MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATING THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 74W. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG UPPER
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N80W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE AXIS. DIFFLUENCE TO THE S AND E IS AIDING IN THE GENERATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA S OF 17N W
OF 75W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE 17N77W ACROSS JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND HAITI TO 21N72W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 125/150 NM
RADIUS OF 14N70W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
HURRICANE EMILY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 67W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AS HURRICANE EMILY MOVES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 76W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM DEEP LAYERED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION
THROUGH 32N64W SSW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WEAK DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N69W TO 29N62W. BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR HURRICANE EMILY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN
53W-67W. A SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SMALL UPPER
LOW NEAR 31N47W S TO 23N51W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE ATLC N OF
20N FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO ACROSS FLORIDA...THUS ONLY
STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE APPARENT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 31N9W SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR
22N24W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS A SMALL
PORTION OF THIS AREA N OF 30N E OF 20W.

$$
WALLACE


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