[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 54.7W AT 13/0300 UTC
MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WITH THE OUTFLOW FAIRLY
SYMMETRICAL. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS IT MOVES W TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 8N56W-11.N54W
AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 11.55.5W-13N57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 16N WITH A 1012
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
15N32.5W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 13N30W-10N36W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE
OBSERVED AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO. THUS SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N25W 10N32W 9N42W TO 10N50W
WHERE IT IS DISRUPTED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST FROM 8N-10N AND WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE COAST FROM 10N-15N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. THIS IS LEAVING THE N AND W GULF CLEAR AND
DRY WITH THE S AND E GULF UNDER MOIST CONDITIONS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE S
MEXICO AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED INTO THE SE GULF AND ARE RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 28N TO NEAR 95W. THIS UPPER HIGH
WILL RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE GULF AND BE OVER MEXICO BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATING THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 77W. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG UPPER
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. VERY SMALL WEAK MID/UPPER HIGH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W...AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N TO INLAND
OVER PANAMA FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 82W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG DOT THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W
OF 75W. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED...STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS FROM
11N-17N E OF 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THAT AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES W
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW MOVING SW INTO THE N
CARIBBEAN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE COASTLINES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 75W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS S FROM A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO 25N72W. WEAK
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N62W
TO BEYOND 32N58W. WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ATLC FROM NEAR 20N62W NE TO 28N54W. A SECOND
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N44W S TO 23N46W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 70W...THUS ONLY
STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE APPARENT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 30N10W SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR
21N34W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N
OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 22W.

$$
WALLACE


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