[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 122346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100 UTC
MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRONG WITH THE SHEAR LOW AND THE WATERS WARM
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES W TOWARD
THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200NM OF CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. A 1012MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N28W  ALONG
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN
26W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 16N. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE/CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 34W-39W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...THUS ENHANCING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 76W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N12W 12N20W 10N28W 11N37W 10N50W
10N62W. THE AXIS IS IRREGULAR DUE TO DISRUPTIONS BY THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 10W-17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N
TO THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM MEXICO INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N FROM 89W-93W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WORKING ITS WAY WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG MEXICO MOVING NW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR...THUS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N79W. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC
LOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 73W-85W. THIS UPPER LOW
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WEST INDIES.  WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
INLAND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO AND OVER NW COLOMBIA. MID/UPPER LEVEL
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT IS WEST OF THE ADVANCING
TROPICAL STORM EMILY AND E OF 68W...THUS ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 19N71W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N74W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
ATLC CONTINUES TO DIG S FROM A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW
WELL N OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO 23N74W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N66W TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SECOND MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N44W S TO 29N47W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 52W...THUS ONLY STRATOCUMULUS
LOW CLOUDS ARE APPARENT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
NEAR 29N12W SW TO NEAR 16N40W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 30W.

$$
JP/HC


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