[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 48.6W AT 12/0900 UTC
MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND UNDER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE
WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 15N JUST SW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE S SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE...THUS THE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 26W-29W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N FROM 29W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 13N WITH A 1012 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 8N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...THUS ENHANCING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF A LINE FROM 14N77W TO
18N84W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 13N24W 8N33W 12N45W 4N58W.
THE AXIS IS IRREGULAR DUE TO DISRUPTIONS BY THE TROPICAL WAVES
AND TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 42W-46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W
WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE GULF E OF 94W. WEAK
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER TEXAS INTO THE
NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 95W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
IS FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM OVER S
MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 92W-96W. HIGH
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N79W. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC
LOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 74W-85W. THIS UPPER LOW
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER
LAKE MARACAIBO AND OVER NW COLOMBIA MOVING INTO THE S CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 75 NM OF COAST FROM 10N-11.5N. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 72W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC...W OF T.S.
EMILY...EXTENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR...THUS ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
N LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 23N70W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE W ATLC...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N72W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
ATLC CONTINUES TO DIG S FROM A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW
WELL N OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH 32N65W TO 24N69W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N68W TO
BEYOND 32N59W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 22N FROM 56W-60W. STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
19N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N56W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N FROM T.S. EMILY INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN AND WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INFLUENCE EMILY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 31N42W S TO 24N47W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
OVER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W...THUS ONLY STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE
APPARENT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 27N13W SW
TO E OF T.S. EMILY NEAR 20N33W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 30W.

$$
WALLACE




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