[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE DENNIS WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 11/0300
UTC. DENNIS IS INLAND CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 32.3N 87.8W
MOVING NNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL BUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N FROM 84W-89W.
DENNIS IS SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES ON THE THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT
DECREASED AS FAST AS THE SURFACE WINDS...SO THUNDERSTORM
GENERATING CONTINUES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE AT 11/0300 UTC. T.D. FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 42.9N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. FIVE IS
WELL DEFINED AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAS INTRODUCED EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 4N24W MOVING W
10-15 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED JUST TO THE W OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 100 NM OF 14N E OF 21W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 18N MOVING
W 15 KT. WAVE IS JUST TO THE E OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE CURVATURE. POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 9N26W 10N40W 7N50W 10N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 24W-33W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N E OF 24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 6N W OF 44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. DENNIS HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE GULF AS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS NOW MOVED INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES. WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF FROM OVER
TEXAS N OF 24N W OF 92W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF THE NE COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE E GULF S TO SE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. ALL THIS COMBINED IS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER DRY
UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THUS CLEARING SKIES
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO T.S. DENNIS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA
NEAR 15N76W MOVING WESTWARD. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 68W-83W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 83W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE AREA CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. A SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W AND IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS AIDING THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/E PANAMA AND
ALONG THE COAST S OF 10N W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HAITI AND ARE MOVING W TOWARD
NE JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 75W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N FROM 65W-84W. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL EXPAND AND COVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BEFORE MID WEEK AND T.D. FIVE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N79W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 23N81W. UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 76W.
THIS UPPER HIGH WILL EXPAND BY MIDWEEK COVERING THE N
CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALL OF THE W ATLC. WEAK
MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NEAR 24N65W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W THROUGH THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W. THIS IS BENIGN FEATURE AND IS NOT GENERATING
ANYTHING BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 225 NM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N FROM 32W-50W...ALSO BENIGN AND NOT PRODUCING ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER. OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 15N58W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
BUT GIVING THE TROPICAL ATLC DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF
THE EQUATOR FROM 48W-60W. THIS DRY AIR IS TO THE W OF T.D. FIVE
AND WILL LIMIT MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM...THUS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC W OF
THE ABOVE FEATURES WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W OFF AFRICA.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF A
LINE FROM 20N30W W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N19W. AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF
60W AND N OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE 80W.

$$
WALLACE


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