[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 102059
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

DENNIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AT 1925Z THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 100 TO 105 KT...BASED ON
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT AT 1928Z...TWO STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS OF 100 KT JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT LANDFALL
ALSO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/18.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL RECURVATURE
AND SLOWDOWN OR STALL IN THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS COULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF
DENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD EXTEND PERHAPS 100 TO 150 MILES INLAND
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/2100Z 30.8N  87.2W    90 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 32.7N  88.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 35.2N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 37.0N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 37.8N  89.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 38.5N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 38.5N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1800Z 38.5N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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