[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 101523
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101730-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...DENNIS HAS RESUMED A NORTHWEST MOTION SINCE 8 AM CDT...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
WE WILL LEAVE MOST WATCHES AND WARNINGS UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST
STATEMENT...EXCEPT GEORGE AND GREENE COUNTIES OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. FOR
THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE
BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE SEE THE
PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 200 PM.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA...OR ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GULF SHORES ALABAMA AND PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR THE
CATEGORY THREE/FOUR THRESHOLD ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB OR 27.46 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...ALL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.  IF YOU DID NOT EVACUATE...SEEK
SHELTER IN THE STURDIEST INTERIOR STRUCTURE YOU CAN FIND. SHELTERS
ARE OPEN IN MANY AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE...WATCH
LOCAL TV OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
SMALL DIAMETER OF DENNIS...STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET.  THE LATEST TRACK PLACES THE GREATEST
STORM SURGE HAZARD FROM GULF SHORES EAST TO ESCAMBIA BAY FLORIDA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...THE WINDS FROM
DENNIS WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER THAN HURRICANE IVAN OF 2004. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY
BE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN EXTREME
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
INLAND COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING NEAR THE
CENTER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF DENNIS.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...
SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TOO EARLY...AS RESIDUAL RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE
TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM DENNIS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN
CONCRETE SURFACES.  IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE CENTER OF DENNIS
PASSES WEST OF ANY COASTAL LOCATION.  USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR HURRICANE INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST
OF THE STORM'S CENTER. A SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE EYE DURING LANDFALL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE TODAY.

...NEW INFORMATION...
WE WILL BEGIN PREPARING THESE STATEMENTS EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS AND
REFLECTING SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE
MOVEMENT OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND
FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES.

DENNIS HAS RESUMED A NORTHWEST MOTION AND THE RATE OF FORWARD SPEED
HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 20 MPH.  USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS
PERSISTENCE AND EXTRAPOLATING THOSE TRENDS...THE CENTER OF DENNIS
WOULD PASS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GULF SHORES AND PENSACOLA.

ALSO...AS DENNIS'S CENTER MOVES INLAND...THIS PRODUCT WILL CONTAIN
INFORMATION FOR INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
NOON...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.

$$

MEDLIN

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