[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 090400
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-091000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...TORNADO WATCH EXTENDED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY
MORNING...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS.

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...PALM BEACH...
HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES...AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS
WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
OF DENNIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM
OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS
INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL
9 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 219
MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 110
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE
IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS CALLED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR
PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING
OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE.

COLLIER COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ASKED FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR AREAS WEST AND
SOUTH OF U.S. 41 AND FOR THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES AND WITH SPECIAL NEEDS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA. PALMETTO RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL HAS BEEN OPENED AS A SHELTER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY SHOULD RUSH A PREPARATIONS OR REMAIN INDOOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE PLANS
TO MOVE TO DRYER AREAS IN CASE A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE
4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS APPROACHES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF
DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY
SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
INCREASE LIKELY REACHING A MAXIMUM IN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3 PM AT NAPLES AND 4 PM AT CAPE
SABLE. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO
CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME COASTAL STRUCTURES AND PERSONS
LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES
OF ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT TONIGHT
AND AROUND 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
BEACH-FRONT ACCESS ROADS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...
MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY TONIGHT. AS DENNIS MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY
39 TO 57 MPH...WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND
POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN
WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND
GLADES COUNTIES...GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PASSING RAIN BANDS
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 68 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
13 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 24 PERCENT. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THIS OCCURRING IS THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH WILL BE
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY THROUGH AROUND NOON SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA
LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES
ON SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. SEAS WELL IN
EXCESS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND
MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9
FEET POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI DADE TO
PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE GROUND IS NEARLY
SATURATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PALM
BEACH, GLADES, HENDRY AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MIAMI-
DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS SPIRAL BANDS CIRCULATING ABOUT
HURRICANE DENNIS COULD ALLOW THE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LOCATION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
RAIN BANDS SPIRALING AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ON THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS THE MOST FAVORED FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THEREFORE...AS RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN CASE TORNADO WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED. THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. THEREFORE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER AND TAKE SHELTER IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE
GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

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