[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 082147
HLSMFL
AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-090300-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR
THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL
PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS.

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF
DENNIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

SQUALLY EASTS WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
AT 545 PM A PEAK WIND GUST OF 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AT OPA LOCKA AND AT 520 PM A
PEAK WIND GUST TO 50 MPH AT MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AT 5 PM WINDS WERE
GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT HOMESTEAD...32 MPH AT FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...
31 MPH AT FORT LAUDERDALE AND PEMBROKE PINES...AND 29 MPH AT MIAMI BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE
SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE
METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAKING DENNIS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE DENNIS IS OVER
CUBA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS CALLED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR
PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING
OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE.

COLLIER COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ASKED FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR AREAS WEST AND
SOUTH OF U.S. 41 AND FOR THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES AND WITH SPECIAL NEEDS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA. PALMETTO RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL HAS BEEN OPENED AS A SHELTER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY SHOULD COMPLETE ALL PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS BEFORE SUNSET.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE PLANS
TO MOVE TO DRYER AREAS IN CASE A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE
4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS APPROACHES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF
DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY
SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
INCREASE LIKELY REACHING A MAXIMUM IN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3 PM AT NAPLES AND 4 PM AT CAPE
SABLE. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO
CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME COASTAL STRUCTURES AND PERSONS
LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES
OF ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT TONIGHT
AND AROUND 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
BEACH-FRONT ACCESS ROADS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS
EVENING. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR
THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED INLAND.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY
39 TO 57 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER
TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE
COUNTY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 69 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
20 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 30 PERCENT. THERE IS
LESS THAN A ONE PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA
BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO
SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO
SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE GROUND IS NEARLY
SATURATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
EXTREME SOUTH PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE...ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND WESTERN COLLIER
COUNTIES ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DENNIS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER
TODAY SHOWED INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THESE SAME BANDS WILL
AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEREFORE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING TONIGHT AND UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN
THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND TAKE SHELTER IF A
TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE
GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

LUSHINE

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