[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 081528
HLSMFL
AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-082200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...FIRST MAJOR RAINBAND BRUSHING EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR
THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL
PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS.

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE DENNIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS...ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE...
MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE
SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE
METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAKING DENNIS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS NOW AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE PLANS
TO MOVE TO DRYER AREAS IN CASE A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS CALLED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR
PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING
OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED
TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE LIKELY REACHING A
MAXIMUM AROUND NOON. AT NAPLES...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND 3 PM EDT. AT CAPE SABLE...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 4 PM EDT. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE
ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE HIGH TIDE
AROUND 3 TO 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT AS DENNIS
MOVES AWAY THE EFFECT SHOULD BE LESSENING.

ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW CAUSED BY THE CIRCULATION
AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES OF ABOUT 2 TO 3
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT. THIS MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF BEACH-FRONT STRUCTURES AND ACCESS.

RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT THE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SURGE CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS
EVENING. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED INLAND.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY
39 TO 57 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER
TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE
COUNTY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 63 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
20 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 7 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 30 PERCENT. FOR
THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING
IS 4 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER IS
LESS THAN 1 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA
BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK. ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OR EXPANSION OF THE
WIND FIELD COULD WORSEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ANYTIME FROM THIS
AFTERNOON NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM
TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK
OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AND
PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE GROUND IS NEARLY
SATURATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE EXTREME SOUTH PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE...ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTIES ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5
INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS WHICH IS FAVORED FOR TORNADOES.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES ARE USUALLY QUICK FORMING AND LAST ONLY A
SHORT WHILE...AND ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.
THESE SPIRAL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE
GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

LUSHINE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net