[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DENNIS STORM AT 8 AM
EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED OVER WATER
BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR 20.9N 79.5W...OR ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SOLID AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM 18.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 77.5W ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SIDE OF THE EASTERN END OF CUBA AND 80W...AND
WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHWEST
OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W TO 19N76W TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. ANOTHER CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF ANDROS
ISLAND. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME BANDS OF RAINSHOWERS MAY
MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF DENNIS...SUCH
AS SOME OF THOSE THAT PASSED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N/26N WEST OF 74W COVERING MOST OF
THE BAHAMAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATING...AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W MOVING WEST 10
TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
SENDING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AREA
OF THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 10N38W...9N41W 9N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 14N
BETWEEN 24W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. PART OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH
GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A 1016 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N96W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE WEST OF 86W...EXCEPT FOR THE BITS OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. THE LATEST 72 HOUR FORECAST SHOWS
THAT HURRICANE DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
U.S.A. COAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DENNIS IS HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERATED AND IN GENERAL NOW COVER THE
AREA FROM FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. THE AFFECTED
COUNTRIES...AT LEAST WITH RAIN...ARE CUBA...JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY HAITI. BANDS OF RAIN
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND DENNIS
ARE REACHING THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND EVEN SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
SHOOTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN FILTERS ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FOUND WEST OF
70W WITH HIGH CLOUDS EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF DENNIS WEST OF 70W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS POKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 22N57W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 33N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS ARE
SEEN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER
IS WEST OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THROUGH 33N55W TO 23N62W.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 33N37W TO 30N45W 27N59W 28N71W TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N. NO SURFACE FRONTS EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W...WITH THE RIDGE SWINGING
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS WEDGING ITS
WAY NORTHEASTWARD A BIT WITH HURRICANE DENNIS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 35N32W TO
30N37W.

$$
MT



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