[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 080353
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-081000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1153 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...DENNIS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLY REQUIRING
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. ALL OTHER RESIDENTS OF SOUTH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS SYSTEM ALSO.

...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MIAMI DADE...MAINLAND
MONROE...AND COLLIER COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. THIS
INCLUDES BOTH COASTAL AS WELL AS INLAND SECTIONS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE
SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE
METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE DENNIS REMAINS OVER
WATER BEFORE LANDFALLING SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING WINDS ANYWHERE BETWEEN OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN
AREAS OF COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY...SHOULD TAKE ANY PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS AT THIS TIME
AND HEED THE ADVISE OF THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS. THIS CAN BE
DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS LOCAL TELEVISION AND
RADIO.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH...MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM SURGE IS OF
3 TO 5 FEET PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF MARCO ISLAND TO
EVERGLADES CITY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
THE CASE ONCE THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
BRINGING THE FLOW ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BY MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT THE HIGH TIDE ACROSS THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY BY MID AFTERNOON...THIS COULD RESULT
IN MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET PARTICULARLY IF THE FLOW
BECOMES ONSHORE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE. EARLIER IN THE
DAY...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE WATERS TO RECEDE BEFORE THE
MAX STORM TIDE MOVES IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT CAN BE
DECEIVING AND PEOPLE ARE THEREFORE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE LINE. ALSO..STORMS TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF ROADS CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND/OR THE COAST.

ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIDE.

RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT THE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SURGE CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 60 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN
MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES AND ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DATE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
SECTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. SOME OF THESE WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN
GUSTS...COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER
LINES CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND
THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 74 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
35 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 16
PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL
OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH
TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM
39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 53 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 16 PERCENT
AND A THERE IS A 4 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH
OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR
IS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA
BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK. ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH...BORDER LINE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 34
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OR EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD COULD
WORSEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ANYTIME FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR THIS AREA ALSO. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE
URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS
LIKELY ON BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE SURF.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
UNDER THE LOCAL FORECAST TRACK...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS IS NORMALLY THE MOST
FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY. IF DENNIS FOLLOWS ITS
FORECAST TRACK...THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN BANDS SPIRALING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED STORMS CAPABLE OF BECOMING TORNADIC. THEREFORE...WHETHER
YOU ARE IN A WARNED AREA OR NOT...YOU SHOULD KEEP MONITORING THE
LATEST STATEMENTS COMING FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI
AS RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO IMPACT SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
FRIDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 5 AM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE
GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

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