[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 072136
HLSMFL
AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-080300-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...DENNIS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM
OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI
OR ABOUT 595 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF
COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS
LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO.

LISTEN FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ABOUT
POSSIBLE EVACUATIONS AND THE OPENING OF SHELTERS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASSUMING THE STORM SURGE OCCURS NEAR ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE..THE STORM
TIDE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS FORECAST TO
BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TIDE AT THE MIAMI HARBOR ENTRANCE WILL BE AT 1046 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING.

ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MARCO ISLAND TO CAPE SABLE...STORM TIDE VALUES OF 2
TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTUAL HIGH TIDE WILL BE FROM ABOUT 300 TO 430 PM SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF COASTAL HIGHWAYS AND THOSE HIGHWAYS LEADING TO MARCO
ISLAND AND FLAMINGO. NORTH OF MARCO ISLAND TO BONITA BEACH...THE STORM TIDE
WOULD BE 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON LAND
THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES
CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 72 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
34 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 15 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 2 AM SATURDAY
MORNING TO 2 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH
TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM
39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 52 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 16 PERCENT
AND A THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH
OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS
BETWEEN 2 AM SATURDAY MORNING AND 2 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE
URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES ONLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT ICON.

$$

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