[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 071810
HLSMFL
AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-072200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 2 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM
OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI
OR ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  DENNIS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF
COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS
LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ON THE FORECASTED TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.  IN NAPLES AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE VALUES MAY BE 1 TO 3
FEET AND WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AFTER DENNIS MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA AND WINDS COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF DENNIS IS
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE VALUES MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER.

...WIND IMPACTS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON LAND
THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES
CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 62 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
26 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 13 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY
NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH
TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM
39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 43 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 13 PERCENT
AND A THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH
OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS
BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH
WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. MARINERS
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR
MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR AND THOSE ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES AND PERSONS SHOULD
SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES ONLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT GO TO OUR WEB
SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT ICON.

$$

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