[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE DENNIS CENTER IS NEAR 16.7N 74.2W OR ABOUT
160 MILES/255 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...
AND ABOUT 235 MILES/375 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO
CUBA. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND THE CENTER FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA...AND MOVING AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN END OF CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ABOUT 500 NM EAST OF THIS CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N19W...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ITCZ PRECIPITATION...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N31W 12N33W 8N34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 14N54W 8N57W MOVING WEST 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF
BRAZIL. AN ISOLATED CELL OF SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM NORTHEAST OF
BARBADOS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N17W 10N26W 8N36W 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N24W 8N30W 7N37W 6N42W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. CINDY IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVING NE.
THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CLEARED BEHIND CINDY AS
DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS MOVED IN FROM THE W/NW.  A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF ALONG 30N86W 24N93W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE THAT IS ALSO
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE HURRICANE
DENNIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI AND SAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT THE MOMENT IS HURRICANE
DENNIS. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN.  SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.
ELSEWHERE THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY NICE. DRY AIR ALOFT IS LOCKED IN
AHEAD OF DENNIS' PATH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING FAIR SKIES WEST OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N75W WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N57W 30N60W 29N68W. A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH NEAR 43N29W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS
DOWN JUST S OF BERMUDA.  AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST NE OF THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEAR 21N55W BUT THE ADJACENT AREA IS
COVERED BY SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER.
THE UPPER LOW IS CONNECTED TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR THE AZORES
BY A WEAK TROF/SHEAR AXIS WHICH MARKS THE NRN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E ATLC WATERS. DRY AIR EXTENDS INTO
THE LOW-LEVELS AND REACHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH FLAT
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES ROUGHLY ALONG
27N60W 32N43W WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S.

$$
MT


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