[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 062208
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE DENNIS TO A HURRICANE
BASED ON A 79-KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THAT WAS MEASURED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 2127Z ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AFTER PASSING
THROUGH THE EYE AND MEASURING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB. WIND
RADII FOR 64-KT WERE INCLUDED AND THE 50-KT RADII WERE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE NEW RECON WIND
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/12.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND
DENNIS COULD REACH CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT PASSES
CLOSE TO JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2200Z 16.1N  72.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N  74.3W    70 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N  76.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  79.1W    95 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.4N  81.4W   100 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  84.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 27.5N  86.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 31.0N  88.0W    65 KT...INLAND


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