[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061208
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 88.9W AT 1200 UTC
ABOUT 30 MILES N OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MOVING NE AT 12 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CINDY...HAVING MADE LANDFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...IS MOVING INTO S MISSISSIPPI WITH A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 28N88.5W TO INLAND OVER THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. CINDY WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 70.8W AT 1200 UTC
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI OR ABOUT
440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING WNW AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. DENNIS CONTINUES WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
12N-17.5N BETWEEN 66.5W-72W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. DENNIS IS
TO THE S OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WNW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HEAVY RAINS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
16N-18.5N BETWEEN 64.5W-70.5W INCLUDING ALL OF PUERTO RICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 16N27W TO 4N30W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD...TILTED CURVATURE IS IN THE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND QUIKSCAT IS NOT SHOWING MUCH NEAR
THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND T.S. DENNIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 10N27W 7N38W 9N60W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-15N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 44W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO INCLUDING THE NW GULF. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF T.S. CINDY. MID/UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W NE OVER
THE FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE UNITED STATES TO BEYOND 32N78W. OTHER
THAN A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 26N85W TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY
ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CINDY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 92W-96W. THE GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY FOR TODAY AND THU WITH MOISTURE FROM
T.S. DENNIS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THU NIGHT/FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STORMY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DENNIS DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. MID/UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR DENNIS
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ENE TO 17N53W. ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF 15N FROM 72W-83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED OVER COLOMBIA
MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO OVER HISPANIOLA AS T.S. DENNIS
CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN. THE WNW TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TO
HURRICANE STATUS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS RATHER QUITE WITH A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 67W WITH A
WEAKENING 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N73W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS PUSHING S INTO THE REGION N OF 28N FROM 57W-67W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N61W 30N65W THEN NW TO 33N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 29N FROM
63W-69W AND WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM 28N63W TO BEYOND 32N58W.
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS THROUGH 32N34W SW TO 27N43W. MID/UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 14N E OF THE THE ABOVE
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
AND CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE ATLC N OF 17N E OF 60W. EASTERLY TRADES HAVE SLACKENING
CONSIDERABLY E OF 40W AND NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS W OF 40W EXCEPT
NEAR DENNIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 30W-45W KEEPING THINGS
DRY WITH THE TYPICAL SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF THE
ITCZ. BELOW AVERAGE SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DEEP TROPICS
BECAUSE OF THE ENHANCED TROPICAL RIDGES.

$$
WALLACE



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