[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.2N 90.3W AT 2100 UTC
ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MOVING NORTH 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO
75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.  CINDY IS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM AND IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS SUCH.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOOK
FAVORABLE WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR W OF THE CENTER
STUNTING OUTFLOW TO THE W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 86W-91W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FURTHER S FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 88W-91W.

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 68.3W AT 2100 UTC
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING WNW 17
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  DENNIS HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH
BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS... EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND TSTMS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CENTER.  THIS IS ALSO A LARGE SYSTEM WITH 20-25 KT
WINDS STILL OBSERVED 300 MILES E OF THE CENTER AND RARE WLY
WINDS NOTED IN THE ABC ISLANDS.  DENNIS IS TO THE SOUTH OF A
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING
GENERALLY WNW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 66W-71W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 58W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.  THE WAVE HAS
A LARGE CIRCULATION IN THE LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS WITHOUT ANY
CONVECTION.

WEAK W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 14N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE
LOOPS... GLOBAL MODELS... AND QUIKSCAT NOT SHOWING MUCH NEAR THE
WAVE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF DENNIS.  A SMALL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE
IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 9N30W 8N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OUTSIDE OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY... THINGS ARE MOSTLY
DRY IN THE REGION.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS TEXAS AND
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH VERY DRY ALOFT SUPPRESSING MOST
CONVECTION.  LIKEWISE...MID/UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE ERN
GULF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR THAN AVERAGE OVER FLORIDA.  WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER SE AND E MEXICO IN THE MOIST SE
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  A LARGE PUSH OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS FROM THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD SPREAD OVER MOST
OF THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF BEHIND CINDY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STORMY WEATHER COVERS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO PUERTO RICO
COURTESY OF MOISTURE BEHIND DENNIS AND FAVORABLE BANDING
FEATURES.  MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 16N E OF 75W.  HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN HISPANIOLA AS BANDS OF TSTMS MOVE OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  DENNIS' WNW TRACK AND
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STATUS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA.  A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR
THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 18N AND
E OF 60W.  FURTHER SOUTH...TRADES ARE SLACKENING CONSIDERABLY E
OF 40W AND NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS W OF 40W EXCEPT NEAR DENNIS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO 31N55W.
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS BENEATH THE RIDGE FROM 31N40W TO 21N63W
AIDING A FEW TSTMS NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N55W.
MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE NE ATLC AS THE TYPICAL AFRICAN
ANTICYCLONE HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD.  A SURGE IN MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE... TRIMMING DOWN THE AREA OF DRY
AIR ALOFT CONSIDERABLY WITH THE MOISTURE E OF 30W S OF 23N.
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO AN UPPER HIGH
NEAR 15N54W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 30W-50W KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH THE TYPICAL SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF
THE ITCZ.   WEAK UPPER LOW IS SEEN NEAR 15N27W... EVIDENCE THAT
THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDES ISLANDS IS QUITE DEEP.  BELOW
AVERAGE SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DEEP TROPICS BECAUSE OF
THE ENHANCED TROPICAL RIDGES.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net