[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS UPGRADED AT 0900 UTC TO TROPICAL
STORM. TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 90.4W AT 1200
UTC ABOUT 200 MILES S-SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES CINDY HAS SLOWLY BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE E OF THE STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 88.5W FROM 23N-30N INCLUDING THE
FAR SE LOUISIANA COAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 64.4W AT 0900
UTC OR 415 MILES SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND/OR
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OUTFLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
NW OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 64W-68W AND WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 13N60W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 58W-72W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAJOR FOCUS BY MID WEEK AS IT APPROACHES
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE
WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE E ISLAND OF THE CAPE
VERDES. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED WITH A SMALL PROTRUSION NORTH
OF THE ITCZ MARKING THE POSITION. WAVE IS BENEATH DRY UPPER AIR
THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 8N28W 1N40W 1N50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 11N
FROM 26W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. CINDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY.
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
NW GULF BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
INTO THE E UNITED STATES AND W ATLC. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 26N W OF 92W AND LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE
W OF CINDY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED NEAR CINDY NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. FOUR IN THE SE CARIBBEAN IS ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST
TODAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF E OF T.S. CINDY COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 73W WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS LEFT THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF
PANAMA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM A WEAK UPPER HIGH NEAR T.D. FOUR ENE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO 18N47W. THE DRY CONDITIONS W OF 76W ARE
BEING QUICKLY ERODED AWAY BY MOISTURE FROM THE ADVANCING T.D.
FOUR IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 72W-84W. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS T.D. FOUR
MOVES TOWARD CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 31N65W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 65W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLC N OF 22N FROM 35W-65W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N53W SW TO 24N61W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
26N59W-30N52W. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION
IS GENERATING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
29N71W TO BEYOND 32N64W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC E OF 35W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 20N. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N
E OF 50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF 20N FROM 30W-45W AND THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 30W...THUS
KEEPING THE AREA RATHER DRY WITH THE TYPICAL SCATTERED/BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS OBSERVED.

$$
WALLACE



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