[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS NEAR 19.6N 88.1W
OR ABOUT 100 MILES/165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS
POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 155 MILES/250 KM SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO
MEXICO. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST FROM 18N TO 21.5N
BETWEEN 86.5W AND 89W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 84W AND
87W.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 16N57W TO 13N60W
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11.5N62W TO 6N62W...
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
16N EAST OF 71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE
MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ GOES FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N15W TO 9N26W TO 10N39W...FROM
9N43W TO 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 7N
BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ON TOP OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...FROM EL SALVADOR INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND EASTERN GEORGIA...COVERS THE AREA
EAST OF 90W. A COMPARATIVELY NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IT IS SPREADING STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN
55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 71W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES ARE BETWEEN 70W WITH THE
ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND
82W JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEYOND EASTERN GEORGIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CONNECTED TO THE EL SALVADOR-BEYOND GEORGIA RIDGE...CONTROLS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...NAMELY WEST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STILL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA. YET ANOTHER TROUGH
DIPS INTO THE FAR NE ATLC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS BUT IS
VIRTUALLY WEATHER-LESS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR.  FARTHER S...THE
DEEP TROPICS ARE CONTROLLED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH RIDGING
FROM W MAURITANIA TO THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  DIFFLUENT
FLOW TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO SPARK
TSTMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE RIDGE TO 25N.

$$
MT


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