[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CENTER NEAR 19.3N 87.8W AT 04/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 65 MILES/105 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND
ABOUT 100 MILES/165 KM SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.  IT IS
MOVING NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS
40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF T.D. THREE WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW BANDS
MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

A LARGE WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 16N55W TO 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N59W TO 6N61W...IS ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 MPH...AND HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC MOVEMENT IN THE INFRARED
CLOUD FIELD IS ALONG 40W FROM 8N TO 11N. ALL PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ GOES FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 9N29W TO 10N38W...FROM
10N41W TO 10N50W AND 11N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
EAST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ON TOP OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...FROM EL SALVADOR INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND EASTERN GEORGIA...COVERS THE AREA
EAST OF 90W. A COMPARATIVELY NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 250 NM EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SPREADING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR WITH FAIR SKIES ARE BETWEEN 68W WITH THE ADVANCING TROPICAL
WAVE STILL EAST OF THE AREA...AND 81W JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BEYOND EASTERN GEORGIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CONNECTED TO THE EL SALVADOR-BEYOND GEORGIA RIDGE...CONTROLS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...NAMELY WEST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STILL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
FLORIDA. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NE ATLC NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS BUT IS VIRTUALLY WEATHER-LESS DUE TO VERY DRY
AIR.  FARTHER S...THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CONTROLLED BY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH RIDGING FROM W MAURITANIA TO THE SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  DIFFLUENT FLOW TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF THIS
RIDGE IS HELPING TO SPARK TSTMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
THE LESSER ANTILLES.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
THE RIDGE TO 25N.

$$
MT


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