[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THERE IS A SMALL SWIRL ALONG THE ITCZ.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED NEAR THE ITCZ.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE WAVE IS LOCATED FURTHER E.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND TIMESECTIONS FROM AFRICA ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A REPOSITION.  FOR NOW... EXTRAPOLATION IS USED AS THE
PRIMARY MEANS FOR LOCATING THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ALONG 48W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE DISPLAYS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.  A 1010
MB LOW HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N48W.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 48W-53W. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
SAHARAN LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST WITH THE LEADING EDGE ALONG
57W. THIS AREA OF DUST IS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AHEAD OF
THE WAVE NEAR 20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 23N MOVING
W AROUND 15 KT.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE.  AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 76W MAINLY N OF 14N INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA.  HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE HAVE PERSISTED OVER JAMAICA DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS
LIKELY PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NW OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N35W 10N48W
ENTERING S AMERICA NEAR SURINAME TO 5N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 10W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W-38W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1010 MB LOW IS OVER GEORGIA PRODUCING 10 KT WLY FLOW OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER W CUBA AND IS ENTERING
THE GULF ALONG 84W S OF 23N MOVING W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
80W-86W EXTENDING 30 NM OVER THE GULF.  THE NW GULF HAS
PREDOMINATELY 10 KT S-SW FLOW...WHILE THE SW GULF HAS 10 KT SE
FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 86W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
21N91W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 86W.  THIS PATTERN IS CREATING
CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE W GLFMEX AND OVER
THE SE GULF.  HOWEVER...THIS DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO A INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND STORMY PATTERN AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO
THE SE GLFMEX SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY S OF 25N E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD TO
85W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NW AFFECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N INCLUDING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS. ONLY
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MASSIVE 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 37N37W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
ATLANTIC N OF 18N.   OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N ...A
LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE
AREA E OF 57W LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO AREAS S OF 15N.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR
35N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 46W-49W.
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A LARGE E/W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W
AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 25N1W 17N30W 16N50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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