[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32W S OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE WAVE IS LOCATED
FURTHER E.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TIMESECTIONS FROM
AFRICA ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A REPOSITION.  FOR
NOW... EXTRAPOLATION IS USED AS THE PRIMARY MEANS FOR LOCATING
THIS WAVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT.  THE WAVE DISPLAYS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.  HOWEVER...DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 41W-43W. THE WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SAHARAN LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST WITH THE
LEADING EDGE ALONG 54W/55W. THIS AREA OF DUST IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE NEAR 20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 23N MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE.  AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO 76W MAINLY N OF 15N INCLUDING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND JAMAICA.  HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAVE
PERSISTED OVER JAMAICA DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS LIKELY PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NW
OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 8N30W 9N43W ENTERING S
AMERICA NEAR SURINAME AND CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER N PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.  WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE UNITED STATES
CLIPS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA OVER N FLORIDA WITH A SECOND
MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA.  THESE TWO FEATURES ARE IGNITING A
LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GLFMEX AND MUCH OF FLORIDA N OF 25N E
OF 90W.  ELSEWHERE...THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAPPED BENEATH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC WNW THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
THE CENTRAL GLFMEX NEAR 27N90W.  THIS PATTERN IS CREATING
CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE W GLFMEX W OF 90W
AND OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W.  HOWEVER...THIS
DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED AND STORMY PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW
AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE SE GLFMEX SUNDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY S
OF 25N E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD TO
85W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NW AFFECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N INCLUDING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS. ONLY
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE W ATLC ARE PRODUCING
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 55W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVE
INTO THE AREA. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR
36N50W TRAILS AN TROUGH SWD ALONG 50W WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-50W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
OVER THE E ATLC...A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 55W LIMITING DEEP
CONVECTION TO AREAS S OF 15N.

$$
RHOME



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