[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOWER AMPLITUDE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
31W SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE SAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
IS MOSTLY INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING WAVE PASSAGE...BUT THE DAKAR
TIMESECTION SUGGESTS A BACKWARD-LEANING STRUCTURE GIVEN THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PRECEDED THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION BY
18-24 HRS. ONE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG RAIN CELLS IS IN THE
ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO
10N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

THE SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 9N43W APPEARED TO BE CLOSER TO 11N43W
AT 02/0600 UTC. THE WAVE ALSO APPEARED TO BE MORE ALONG 43W MORE
THAN ANYTHING. THESE ARE THE POSITIONS FOR THE 02/0600 UTC MAP.
THE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUCH A
CONVINCING REASON TO PUT THE WAY ALONG 43W AND NOT TO MOVE IT
TOWARD 47W/48W IF WE WERE TO FOLLOW THE 02/0000 UTC MAP
POSITION. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE 9N43W LOW CENTER REALLY
APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 11N43W IF ANYTHING. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THIS
WAVE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO
15N82W TO 7N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N82W...ABOUT 90 NM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 76.5W
AND 79W...IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL SECTIONS ADJACENT TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA. EXPECT HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER
IN JAMAICA TODAY AS LONG AS THIS MASS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAINTAINS ITSELF. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS
AREA OF RAIN PERSISTS AND COVERS JAMAICA COMPLETELY FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE ALSO ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF THE EASTERN END OF
CUBA...FROM NORTHEASTERN JAMAICA...FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W
AND 78W. THE SAME INTENSE RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES MAY
OCCUR IN CUBA IF THIS MASS OF RAIN MAINTAINS IFSELF THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N16W 11N29W...9N32W 10N41W...10N47W 7N56W 11N66W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...BECOMING MUCH
MORE ISOLATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...AND
FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF 27N TO 31N IN
LOUISIANA BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE POINTS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTER OF THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE. AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO JUST S OF LOUISIANA AND IS MOVING
W...BEGINNING TO SOMEWHAT DRAG IN INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF ON
SUN BEHIND A TRPCL WAVE...SPREADING SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE N
GULF AND MEXICAN COASTS BY TUE AND WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO
15N82W TO 7N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N82W...ABOUT 90 NM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 76.5W
AND 79W...IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL SECTIONS ADJACENT TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA. EXPECT HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER
IN JAMAICA TODAY AS LONG AS THIS MASS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAINTAINS ITSELF. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS
AREA OF RAIN PERSISTS AND COVERS JAMAICA COMPLETELY FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE ALSO ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF THE EASTERN END OF
CUBA...FROM NORTHEASTERN JAMAICA...FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W
AND 78W. THE SAME INTENSE RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES MAY
OCCUR IN CUBA IF THIS MASS OF RAIN MAINTAINS ITSELF THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOT APPARENT ON
THE 02/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. ONLY A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EMBEDDED TROUGH
BENEATH THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NEAR A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE FIELD...EVEN THOUGH THE OLD SURFACE TROUGH HAS
DISAPPEARED. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 61W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W
IN THE AREA OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

$$
MT


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