[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 01 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N6W 5N13W 3N21W 3N39W THEN ALONG
THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
10W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 84W IS
MAINTAINING COOL/DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA BUT A
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO IS
PUMPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NE ACROSS TEXAS AND
THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONSISTING OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N86W TO A 1013 MB LOW S OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N93W TO A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N96W WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N
OF TAMPICO THEN EXTENDING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 28N EXTENDING FROM PANAMA
CITY ON THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THE TEXAS COAST JUST S OF
GALVESTON. OVERCAST CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 20N OVER
THE MEXICAN COASTAL PLAINS BUT A LOT OF THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
PRODUCED BY A TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FORCED LOW/FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
A FLATTENED MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM THE COLOMBIA NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT CONFLUENCE
INTO THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE E
CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE TO
15N65W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N E
OF 68W. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO
PRODUCING THE USUAL LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE INLAND AND ALONG THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...W OF 35W WITH
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. WESTERN MOST
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW IS CENTERED
JUST N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W S ALONG 27N64W THEN SW TO 24N73W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO OVER THE ISLE OF
YOUTH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE N PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS
MOVING RAPIDLY E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 27N FROM 55W-61W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS.
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN EXTEND INTO
THE SW ATLC S OF 25N E OF 66W...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THAT AREA. FURTHER E...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING S TO
30N32W THEN SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N39W TO 19N48W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF
GUADELOUPE. DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ENHANCING
OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 225/250 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE
IS LOCATED E OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 28W WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE E ATLC IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM
ALONG 24W. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N12W BUT IS ENVELOPED BY DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THUS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE
TROPICS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRODUCING
ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. DRY AND DUSTY AIR ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA
HAS ALSO SPREAD S AND W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS
PROBABLY LIMITING ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE




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