[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 26 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 2N20W EQ40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 20W-26W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 26W-31W...AND FROM
EQ-2N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE E GULF
ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA.  PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.  A WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH S
TO SW FLOW .  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N
AND E OF 90W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 102W N OF
20N.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS ADVECTING OVER MEXICO.  IN CONTRAST
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT REACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 17N60W 16N64W.   THE FRONT LACKS MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...HOWEVER...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-77W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N
OF 13N W OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W HALF OF THE ATLC W OF 40W
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N38W TO 21N50W TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 31W-36W.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS EMERGED OFF THE SE UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC AND
HAS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM 32N57W TO 29N64W 29N69W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED...HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
FIELD OF OPEN CELL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO 75W.  FURTHER
EAST...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N45W NE TOWARD THE AZORES BEYOND 32N30W IS
MAINTAINING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N27W.WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W.   FURTHER S...VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO INDICATED A PLUME OF DUST OFF THE AFRICAN W COAST MOSTLY FROM
3N-23N E OF 35W. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PRODUCING AN AREA
COMPLETELY VOID OF CLOUDS.

$
FORMOSA


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