[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241156 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 24 JAN 2005

...CORRECTION FOR DAY...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EMERGES OFF THE CONTINENT OF AFRICA NEAR 6N8W
EXTENDING WSW ALONG 3N14W 3N21W 1N28W 3N36W OVER S AMERICA NEAR
THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 5N8W 2N13W 1N36W TO THE EQUATOR AND THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY
HAS ENTERED THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD S FROM OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND IS PRODUCING
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
ALLOWING VERY COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL AIR TO CONTINUE SE OVER
FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME E GULF. THIS SURGE OF CONTINENTAL AIR
HAS PRODUCED SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER SEASON
OVER FLORIDA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE W COAST TO JUST N OF TAMPA. THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE POST-FRONTAL
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. UNDER THIS DRY/STABLE AIR
WILL PREVAIL LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD/FLAT RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH A
MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 2N40W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 24N TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS SUCH...CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITH INCREASING LIFT/DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG NORTHEASTER CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILS SW OVER THE W ATLC E
OF BERMUDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
PENETRATING WELL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH A BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN N OF 31N LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO POINTS
WELL NE OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS
PRODUCING A NARROW LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE IN THE ATLC AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS WITH A NEARLY OVERCAST FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING RAPIDLY SE TO
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CARVE OUT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
PROVIDE INCREASING DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS IT RACES E EXTENDING
FROM WELL E OF BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED BETWEEN
37W-57W PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE E ATLC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE



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