[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 21 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 1N50W 5N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN
38W-41W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SURINAME FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W.  BANDS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE E.  A BAND OF RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS IS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 82W-87W.  A
FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 31N63W 25N70W
24N75W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER NW MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N111W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN
106W-120W.  A RIDGE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 15N BETWEEN
90W-106W.  A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-90W.

THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
NE SURFACE FLOW WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N.  OROGRAPHIC
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IS
ALSO NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... W-SW FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N45W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
31N43W 25N44W 19N50W 15N60W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 24N.  A SMALL 1017 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 1015 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 24N24W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 15W-28W
TO INCLUDE THE CANARY ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 31N BETWEEN 25W-65W.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM EQ44W TO BEYOND 31N37W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 26N20W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
10W-25W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF GUYANA ALONG 14N57W 10N58W 6N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 54W-58W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 50W-62W.

$$
FORMOSA


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