[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 21 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N16W 3N23W 2N42W EQ52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 13N FROM 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E UNITED
STATES...GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG
77W. THE TROUGH CONTROLS MOST OF THE GULF AND THE W ATLC W OF
50W. DRY AIR PRESENT IS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH THE SURGE
OF COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
24N76W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT INCLUDING OVER IN E GULF N OF 24N W TO 88W. PRECEDING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N47W CONTINUING
SSW TO 18N53W WHERE IT CONTINUES TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
14N62W. FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS REMAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 23N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE GULF AND W ATLC REMAINS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 70W. THIS TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ARE PRODUCING GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
FROM W PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM DEEP IN THE TROPICS AND
A UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 3N44W N TO 32N40W WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE JUST W OF LESSER
ANTILLES TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FROM 30W-50 IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N. THIS FLOW IS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING
CONVECTION THERE AND THUS LEAVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC DRY. OVER THE NE ATLC IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N
AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS W OF 28W. LIFT/DIVERGENCE OF THIS
TROUGH IS ENHANCING MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N18W TO BEYOND 32N26W. A SURFACE
LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 23N26W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW
TO 33N38W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N39W.

$$
WALLACE


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