[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 20 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N30W 4N50W 4N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-35W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W.
10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED GOING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
CENTER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 58-77 F.  A BAND OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS IS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE 28N90W
25N80W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N69W
27N78W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N67W 26N74W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS W OF THE FRONT
AND TROUGH TO THE FLORIDA COAST.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING E AT 15
KT.  THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SAT
WHICH COULD BRING THE COLDEST AIR TO S FLORIDA SINCE LATE DEC.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE REMAINS OVER MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  AXIS IS ALONG 16N97W 31N105W.
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO...CUBA...AND W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS ENTIRE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN.  MOISTURE REMAINS W OF THE OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLAND
ALONG 20N55W 17N60W 14N67W.  OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.  THE
TERRAIN-INDUCED CLOUDINESS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS WINDS SLACKEN.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 20N IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

E ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N55W
17N60W 14N67W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS E OF THE
FRONT NEAR 31N38W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.  THIS LOW HAS LOST ITS UPPER
SUPPORT AS TROUGHING HAS SLID TO THE E ALONG 23N27W TO 31N33W.
LIFT/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 25W-29W.  FARTHER
S IN THE TROPICS.... EXPANDING UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG 5W FROM
38W TO NE S AMERICA.  THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE E OF 38W WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE NOTED.

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net