[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 19 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 5N35W 4N50W 9N75W 4N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
29W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N88W.  THE GULF HAS RELATIVE LIGHT WINDS GOING AROUND THE HIGH
WITH WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60-78 F.  A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 26N97W TO 19N95W.  OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF 95W TO THE BASE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 17N-26N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 16N95W TO
30N107W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS MEXICO N OF 19N AND
CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 20N-26N.  A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIPPING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
26N. THIS SYSTEM LACKS APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND HAS ONLY A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER N FLORIDA.  A 100-130 KT
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SEA.  THE MAIN FEATURES OF
NOTE ARE A NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA ALONG
19N66W 13N77W 8N82W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN
240 NM NW OF FRONT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 14N W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT...POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL WITH ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS NOTED ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

ATLANTIC...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N74W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N52W TO 24N56W TO PUERTO
RICO NEAR 19N66W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT.  W OF THE FRONT...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLIES...COLD
AIR ADVECTION...AND A FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
PREVAIL TO THE FLORIDA COAST.  A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N36W WITH A NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED 1009 MB SURFACE LOW.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 28W-35W.  THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW AT 10-15 KT.  OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS PRODUCING ENHANCED
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 20W-45W.

$$
FORMOSA





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