[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 16 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 1N1W 1N10W 3N20W 4N26W 2N40W 2N46W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN
29W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W...FROM 2N TO 7N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...FROM A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AT THIS TIME...SPANS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND 110W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF 30N WEST
OF 70W. THE STRONGEST VORTICITY IS ROUNDING THE BASE IN CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE STRONG POLAR JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...
BUT 80 KT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 24N
ARE BRINGING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS...MORE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST NORTHEAST OF 27N86W 23N82W. THICK CLOUDS ALSO EXTEND
OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE SOUTH OF 23N
WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. WILL SEND A SECOND SURGE OF
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER.

FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WAS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED FROM CALIFORNIA TO FLORIDA DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS...HAS DISAPPEARED AND NOW LEAVES THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE TO PUSH IT ALONG. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS
THROUGH 32N73W TO AN 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
26N79W...CONTINUING TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 82W...TO EASTERN
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W...CURVING THROUGH NORTHERN NICARAGUA...
SOUTHERN HONDURAS...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...BREAKING THERE AND CONTINUING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N98W AND
23N99W. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN NOSING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA...THROUGH 31N99W IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO 25N98W IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 15N87W
IN HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 32N69W 26N74W
AND NORTH OF 26N. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL CUBA BETWEEN
78W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT GOES THROUGH CUBA ALONG 82W...
TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W...CURVING THROUGH NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...TO THE
EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...BREAKING THERE AND CONTINUING
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO
20N98W AND 23N99W. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN NOSING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA...THROUGH 31N99W IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
25N98W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
TO 15N87W IN HONDURAS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
MOSTLY FROM HONDURAS TO 18N WEST OF 82W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
HAITI TO CUBA TO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W...TRANSITIONING INTO UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...BECOMING JUST
WESTERLIES AS THE FLOW EXITS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL WIND
FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS FROM THE NORTHWEST...
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IS APPROACHING 65W FROM THE EAST...AROUND 60W...IN RESPONSE
TO A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N61W.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W IS
ANTICYCLONIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 32N23W REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 24N25W.
DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N20W TO
22N30W TO 21N33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 14W AND 26W. UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF
25N BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND AFRICA.

$$
MT


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