[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 15 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 2N1W 2N20W 5N35W 4N50W 2N52W 8N70W 4N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTI0N FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-50W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
52W-62W INCLUDING N PORTIONS OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH
GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E TWO-THIRDS OF
THE U.S. WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE
GLFMEX.  THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS OVER N MEXICO AND ALONG THE
N GULF COAST THEN WEAKENS OVER FLORIDA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC WITH ONLY
A FEW STEAKS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS N OF 25N. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...POST-FRONTAL DRY NLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GLFMEX
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STATIONARY ALONG THE SE FLORIDA
COAST.  BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVER THE GLFMEX WATERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE PORTION
INTO N FLORIDA.  THE REMAINING PORTION OF FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY LIES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SE FLORIDA COAST FROM MIAMI NWD TO CAPE
CANAVERAL.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY OR DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A
REINFORCING SHOT TO THE NOW STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GLFMEX WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY
NLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS
SWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH EXCEPTION TO THE EXTREME S CARIBBEAN AND N PORTIONS OF S
AMERICA...MOISTURE IS SCARCE OVER THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  AT THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE OVER THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS EWD OVER S
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA ALONG 15N/16N THEN NE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO W CUBA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES JUST W OF JAMAICA FROM
FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA.  CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND VERY
DRY AIR LIES W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FURTHER E...LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N60W WITH THE NE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES EXPERIENCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST E OF THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS MOVING WEST.  WHILE SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED SHALLOW BASED SHOWERS.
AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM JUST E OF HAVANA CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.  THERE
IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS
OVER HONDURAS AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA AS STABLE NLY FLOW
ENCOUNTERS THE STEEPER TERRAIN.  THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK KEEPING CLOUDINESS AND SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN EXISTS N OF 25N WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED
STATES AND EXTREME W ATLC...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 35N53W AND A TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IN BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N23W 23N40W.  GOOD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E UNITED STATES TROUGH
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT WHICH LIES IN
BETWEEN THE SE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA SWD TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY OR
DRIFT EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT PRIOR TO GETTING REINFORCED SUNDAY
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE S UNITED STATES.
SHIFTING EWD...E ATLC TROUGH ALONG 32N23W 23N40W CONTINUES
WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL ATLC ANTICYCLONE
TO A DEEP LAYERED LOW NEAR 22N60W.   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY CUTOFF FROM THE WLY FLOW
PRODUCING A HIGH OVER LOW TYPE PATTERN S OF 25N W OF 40W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE LOW TO THE E BAHAMAS WHILE DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN
50W-60W AND S OF 18N BETWEEN 35W-50W.  CONDITIONS OVER THE E
ATLC REMAIN DRY/TRANQUIL EXCEPT FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N17W 24N30W
22N40W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 26N55W.

$$
RHOME


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